Long-term Care. Demographic aspects and insurance demand.
October 2021
CIR Research
Ermanno Pitacco, Director, DemoLab*, MIB Trieste School of ManagementChiara Furlan, Core Faculty in area Insurance & Risk Management, MIB Trieste School of Management
The aging of the population is undoubtedly one of the macro-trends of the future.
In recent decades, the demographic structure of the European Union and Italy has changed profoundly, and this dynamic will continue to develop in the future as well.
It is estimated that by 2070 the median age within the EU will reach the threshold of 49 years, five more than current levels. In the same period, the elderly population (65 years and over) will represent 30% of the total and that of working age (20-64 years) should decrease from the current 59% to 51% of the total population.
In Italy, this phenomenon is one of the fastest among the most developed countries.
These changes have clear consequences on various aspects of the economy. In particular, personal insurance and public and private welfare offer direct evidence of the impact of changes in the demographic scenario.
Among the various effects of the evolution of the scenario, particular attention should be paid to the needs of partially or totally non-self-sufficient older adults, and therefore to the need of long-term care.
A significant role of insurance companies is thus outlined: specific insurance coverage, known as Long-term Care insurance, can provide the financial means necessary to cover, at least partially, the costs of assistance.
Given the current interest in this topic, the MIB DemoLab* launched in 2020 a research aimed at providing:
In recent decades, the demographic structure of the European Union and Italy has changed profoundly, and this dynamic will continue to develop in the future as well.
It is estimated that by 2070 the median age within the EU will reach the threshold of 49 years, five more than current levels. In the same period, the elderly population (65 years and over) will represent 30% of the total and that of working age (20-64 years) should decrease from the current 59% to 51% of the total population.
In Italy, this phenomenon is one of the fastest among the most developed countries.
These changes have clear consequences on various aspects of the economy. In particular, personal insurance and public and private welfare offer direct evidence of the impact of changes in the demographic scenario.
Among the various effects of the evolution of the scenario, particular attention should be paid to the needs of partially or totally non-self-sufficient older adults, and therefore to the need of long-term care.
A significant role of insurance companies is thus outlined: specific insurance coverage, known as Long-term Care insurance, can provide the financial means necessary to cover, at least partially, the costs of assistance.
Given the current interest in this topic, the MIB DemoLab* launched in 2020 a research aimed at providing:
- a description of the demographic scenario and its recent evolutionary aspects;
- a summary of the Long-term Care insurance offer in various countries, with particular regard to the situation of the Italian insurance market;
- a quantitative analysis of some Long-term Care insurance products with the specific purpose of assessing their exposure to risk due to the lack of statistical bases.
* Now Centre for Insurance Research
